A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
